BNRSTOCKS- August 25,

BNRSTOCKS

NIFTY bearish below 5,130

Wkly Tech Analysis: Bias to remain bearish below 5,130

Among the index stocks, Hero MotoCorp slumped almost 10% to Rs 1,981, and Maruti plunged over 8% to Rs 1,283

Rex Cano / Mumbai May 05, 2012, 23:59 IST

The markets, as expected, began the week with hopes of a counter rally by the bulls. We saw the Sensex touch a high of 17,432, but eventually the gains turned into significant losses by the end of the week as technically the momentum oscillators were not supportive.

The Sensex slumped to a low of 16,777 amid heavy losses in auto, banking and capital goods shares. The BSE benchmark eventually ended the week with a loss of 356 points at 16,831.

Among the index stocks, Hero MotoCorp slumped almost 10 per cent to Rs 1,981, and Maruti plunged over 8 per cent to Rs 1,283. BHEL, Tata Steel, State Bank of India, Coal India, Bajaj Auto and Larsen & Toubro were the other major losers. On the other hand, TCS surged over 6 per cent to Rs 1,278. Cipla and Hindustan Unilever were the other prominent gainers, up around 4.5 per cent each.

According to the monthly Fibonacci charts, Sensex has near support around 16,700, a break below which could see the index dip towards the quarterly support level, which is around 16,200. The yearly chart also indicates some support around 16,670-odd levels. On the upside, the Sensex needs to sustain above 16,980.

Next week, the Sensex may seek support around 16,580-16,425, while it may face resistance around 17,080-17,240.

The NSE Nifty moved in a range of over 200 points. The index touched a high of 5,280, and then tumbled to a low of 5,071. The index finally settled with a significant loss of 122 points at 5,209.

The Nifty has broken below its 200-day DMA (daily moving average) on the daily charts after more than three months. The momentum oscillators continue to remain fairly bearish, hence we may see some more losses going ahead.

Select key momentum oscillators like the MACD and Stochastic Slow are both negative, on the daily and weekly charts, hence chances of a further downside are higher.

The near-term bias is likely to be negative as long as Nifty remains below 5,130 — which is the lower end of the Bollinger Band. The nearest support for Nifty is at 5,020, below which we could see fresh weakness with the next major support at 4,835.

On the positive front, if the Nifty is able to sustain above 5,130, then we could see a counter rally all the way up to 5,290-odd levels.

Next week, the Nifty is likely to seek support around 5,005-4,960, while it may face resistance around 5,165-5,215.

SUCCESS A WAY OF LIFE

11 MAR, 2012, 10.38AM IST,

Lesson's from AM Naik and L&T's leadership change

Managing leadership succession is very challenging for all organisations, tougher for more complex entities. Unfortunately, in several cases, neither the incumbent nor the board wakes up to address this challenge early on.

Typically, in their hurry to grow the organisation, they either forget or do not devote adequate attention to such a strategically important matter before it becomes a crisis. The leadership change at L&T has attracted a lot of attention precisely for the same reason. There are several lessons from this experience.

Every Lap Counts

Leadership succession is like a relay race. Choice of the runners for each lap depends on the challenges ahead, the first and last runners being the fastest. There has to be adequate preparation and perfect understanding between runners about the timing of passing the baton.

The person handing over the baton should feel confident that the person receiving it has caught hold of it. The two runners have to have perfect understanding between them about each other. In a well-trained context, this happens in split seconds. Played out in slow motion, the same thing happens in leadership succession in corporations.

In this highly professionalised organisation, the board and management have always been aware of the need for finding a successor to Mr Naik, who is already 70. In fact, media reports that appeared about two years ago had described the dilemma that the company was going to face.

It is unfortunate that the board did not do much then or earlier about choosing the runner for the next lap with all the appropriate capabilities, and prepare the ground for a smooth change over. This was in spite of the fact that the entire team of executive directors was over 60 then!

Start Early

The board should have started the process of identifying the successor at least five years back with a definite deadline, and intensified the search especially when it was clear then itself that there was no obvious choice available.

The company would have been better off with a younger top leadership to steer the organisation to achieve the 25 percent compound growth planned in the next several years. Such an approach would have guaranteed smooth transition of leadership at L&T, with an over lapping phase for the baton change to be trouble free.

Doubles Game

The current decision to split the responsibilities between chairman and managing director appears to be a convenient decision. The new duo of chairman and MD/CEO is going to face sharing the responsibilities of shaping the destiny of the organisation. It may not be easy for the new entrant to flourish when Mr Naik's shadow continues to loom large as the executive chairman.

Given that Mr Naik and Mr Venkatraman will play a doubles game for the next five years, it is critical for them both as well as the board to objectively discuss the roles they will actually play independently and jointly. The new MD should not become a figure head

Prepare Next Runner

Mr Naik has built L&T into a giant organisation, fighting several odds. He has a larger than life image. In such a scenario, it is for the incumbent to remind himself of the trusteeship role he is playing and prepare the organisation for the next leader. It appears that Mr Naik did not do it early enough.

By asking Mr Naik to continue as the executive chairman, the board has signalled its lack of preparedness for a change which is inevitable for anyone. Many leaders in business and politics do not believe that their time for retirement would ever come; they tend to think that they alone are capable of running subsequent laps. They do not recognise the need to prepare the next lap runner early on. Mr Naik and the board failed in their trusteeship responsibility.

Insecurity of Retirement

The longer a leader stays and the bigger the success, the greater is likely to be the challenge for his departure. Individual egos play a dominant role in refusing to accept realities. This is where some of the basic teachings of this country such as detachment, contentment and feeling of duty become all the more helpful. This is when leaders show their maturity.

National Institution

L&T is a national institution, respected and regarded for its professionalism by multiple stakeholders. The top team, representing all the stakeholders has a responsibility to ensure that it starts preparing for the next lap runner now itself. As trustees, they have to constantly remind themselves that no individual is indispensable.


(The author is Thomas Schmidheiny Chair Professor of Family Business & Wealth Management, Indian School

what next after.... ???

Best weekly rally- a boon ??

The bottoms are intact for now despite of the global negative news. The strength of Nifty is now better than a week ago and the whole scenario is changed the technicals for now as good bottom support is at 5400 and the 5500 is a good support where bulls can take advantage of buying again on average cost. The strength gained can be even extended upto 5440 level. So the Bears have to wait for a longer period than anticipated for yearly low cuts of Nifty and its major supporting stocks.

The Bears can say thanks to the rising crude prices, Libya crisis and the Fukushima nuclear crisis. As a matter of fact now the Japan nuclear crisis is more of an environmental concern than of economic concern. The economic impact of the Tsunami can be seen after 15^th April, so that the testing time to japans ability to face and come out of this grave crisis is tested against the burgeoning power crisis and the exhausted inventory of the industry. The devastation effect was on the infrastructure especially power crisis. This is seen as immediate impact on the Japan’s automobile industry and their ancillary.

In India the growth indicators are now favouring the Bulls but the future is looking bleak as the inflation is stubborn to yield below 8% and the Govt spending likely to be eased. The political situation is becoming fluid and the populist support to Congress is decreasing due to scams and the gratification charges. The Central govt is not strong to make any big policy changes that can add value to markets other than the GST, banking amendment bill. The serious concern is now on the survival of the Manmohan Singh ability as PM to lead a Govt. with little damage to populist measures initiated and the corruption charges being faced.

Why Fall?????

China, Ireland knock Sensex off 20k perch

BS Reporter / Mumbai November 17, 2010, 0:06 IST

Indian shares slid on Tuesday, along with most global peers, on concerns that China may further tighten monetary policy to curb inflation and that Ireland is in talks with the European Union and IMF for a bailout. A rate hike in South Korea also dampened sentiment in the Asian region.

The sell-off resulted in the Sensex and Nifty closing well below their psychological levels of 20,000 and 6,000, respectively. The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex shed 2.19 per cent, or 444.55 points, to close at 19,865.14. Earlier, the index opened at 20,371.73 and touched a high of 20,380.10 in early morning trades. The National Stock Exchange (NSE) Nifty lost 2.20 per cent, or 132.90 points, to end at 5,988.70.

“The situation in Ireland has raised concerns that many other countries in Europe may find it difficult to meet their debt commitments,” said Anagram Capital CEO Mayank Shah. The cost of insuring against debt default in other European countries like Portugal and Greece has also increased.

According to a Bank of America (BofA) Merrill Lynch November survey of fund managers, more than a third of global investors have identified EU sovereign funding as their key risk. “It’s possible that the year-end rally has already happened, leaving investors vulnerable to event risks, such as a deepening European sovereign debt crisis or a dollar rally,” said Michael Hartnett, chief global equity strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.

On Tuesday, all the Sensex stocks except Bharti Airtel ended in the red. Sterlite Industries (down 5.40 per cent to Rs 172.60), Hindalco (down 5.21 per cent to Rs 212.05) and Jaiprakash Associates (down 4.57 per cent to Rs 122.20) were the major losers.

The market breadth was deeply negative, with more than four stocks declining for every one that advanced on the BSE. The BSE Midcap and the BSE Smallcap indices fell 2.15 per cent and 2.92 per cent, respectively. All the sectoral indices on Asia’s oldest bourse

Realty and metal indices suffered the most, with a fall of more than 3 per cent each. According to provisional figures on the NSE website, foreign institutional investors net sold Indian shares worth Rs 196.69 crore on the cash market, while domestic institutions were buyers to the tune of Rs 449.59 crore.

Among other Asian markets, the Shanghai Composite lost 3.98 per cent, Tokyo’s Nikkei declined 0.31 per cent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 1.39 per cent and Seoul’s Kospi dropped 0.77 per cent. At the time of going to press, major European markets were trading 1.3-2.0% lower. Wall Street also opened lower, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq around 1.3% off on morning trades.

Thanks to Business standard

The knowledge gained…..

The trading is an excellent opportunity to make money when we are crystallizes on certain stocks.
The strength I gained these days after my debacle for 3 days is an excellent experiential knowledge gained.

The day trading will have a High and a Low. The same is true for a week, month, yearly and for a life time. The high cut and the low cut is very important to make money in the market for a day trader and so is for an investor.

The beauty of the market is that it survives with in the band with oscillation. The trader, swing trader or an investor has to find out the strength in that particular movement.

Strength Generated

Strength Gained

Strength in Momentum

Strength Exhausted

These four rules will rule the stock market.
It depends on the fundamental qualities of ....
The state of Economy,
The Industry/Sector of the company operates
The out look of that company’s position to reap the profits/ face the challenges and
The Investors interest in the sector/the company.