Real estate: Centre weighs stress fund,...New life in the offing...!

Real estate: Centre weighs stress fund, Hardeep Singh Puri to head committee

By: Rishi Ranjan Kala | 

Updated: August 12, 2019 7:07:03 AM

Sources said the real estate industry flagged an “unrest” on account of liquidity crunch and poor sales, which has created a “fragile situation”.

The industry urged for inclusion of financial institutions under the ambit of Real Estate Regulatory Act (Rera) to aid completion of stalled projects. (Reuters)

Aiming to revive stalled housing projects and help lakhs of homebuyers, the government will explore the possibility of creating a stress fund. The idea is to use the fund — the industry has mooted its initial size to be Rs 10,000 crore — to complete the construction of housing projects that are stuck due to a variety of reasons, including a liquidity crunch with the real estate firms. This was one of the outcomes of a two-hour meeting between finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman and the real estate industry on Sunday.

The meeting was followed by a separate round of deliberations with various homebuyers’ associations. Besides Sitharaman, the government was represented by housing and urban affairs minister Hardeep Singh Puri, minister of state for finance Anurag Thakur and top officials from the departments of economic affairs, revenue, housing, CBDT, corporate affairs and Rera. The industry was represented by Credai and Naredco. Sources said the real estate industry flagged an “unrest” on account of liquidity crunch and poor sales, which has created a “fragile situation”. They demanded that banks and NBFCs be encouraged to fund real estate projects.

One of the sources said on condition of anonymity, “During the deliberations, it was decided that a group will be formed under Puri to explore the feasibility of creating a stress fund to complete pending projects. It will include cabinet secretary, housing and urban affairs secretary, corporate affairs secretary and the Rera chief. The group is expected to meet in the next two-three weeks.”

Asked about the creation of a stress fund, Puri said: “We discussed a lot of issues” but refused to elaborate. The meeting was called against the backdrop of a virtual crisis in the real estate sector reflected in liquidity crunch, demand slowdown and stalled projects. The industry urged for inclusion of financial institutions under the ambit of Real Estate Regulatory Act (Rera) to aid completion of stalled projects. “Whatever problems are there of homebuyers, stalled projects etc, we are exploring ways to move forward. Many homebuyers have moved the Supreme Court and there are judgments too. So, it’s a very complicated arena. But given the goodwill within the government, among homebuyers and the industry, whatever problems are there, we will find solutions for them,” Puri said.

Credai chairman Jaxay Shah termed the deliberations positive, adding that the government is cognizant of issues impacting real estate, including liquidity crunch and taxation. Naredco president Niranjan Hiranandani said: “The issue of stalled projects in the NCR region and how it can be sorted came up.” Homebuyers’ body Forum for Peoples’ Collective Efforts president Abhay Upadhyay said five lakh buyers have not got their dwelling units due to huge delays in delivery. He demanded the creation of a Rs 10,000-crore stress fund to complete such projects. To address the sector’s issues, the industry associations suggested various measures, including reduction of interest rates on home loans to 7% and withdrawal of the recent NHB circular prohibiting subvention scheme. They also suggested that for real estate projects, which are commercially viable and require only last-mile funding by way of equity, the National Infrastructure Investment Fund (NIIF) can be a good source of funding.

This can be considered by NIIF if the requirement that real estate projects be covered under the ‘infrastructure’ definition and are not limited to affordable housing as defined under the harmonised list of infrastructure notified by the government is met.

https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/realty-crisis-centre-weighs-stress-fund-hardeep-singh-puri-to-head-committee/1672898/

Narendra Modi’s $87 billion river-linking project set to take off as floods hit India

After years of foot-dragging, the govt plans to begin work on an $87 billion scheme to connect nearly 60 rivers in the country as Narendra Modi bets on the project to end deadly floods, droughts

Mayank Bhardwaj

Large areas of eastern and north-eastern India are reeling under floods in which hundreds have died, while torrential rain also brought Mumbai to a standstill this week. The Tamil Nadu, in contrast, recently rationed drinking water due to drought. Photo: PTI

Daudhan: After years of foot-dragging India will begin work in around a month on an $87 billion scheme to connect some of the country’s biggest rivers, government sources say, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi bets on the ambitious project to end deadly floods and droughts.

The mammoth plan entails linking nearly 60 rivers, including the mighty Ganges, which the government hopes will cut farmers’ dependence on fickle monsoon rains by bringing millions of hectares of cultivatable land under irrigation.

In recent weeks, some parts of India and neighbouring Bangladesh and Nepal have been hit by the worst monsoon floods in years, following two years of poor rainfall.

Modi has personally pushed through clearances for the first phase of the project — which would also generate thousands of megawatts of electricity — the sources say, despite opposition from environmentalists, tiger lovers and a former royal family.

That will involve construction of a dam on the Ken river, also known as the Karnavati, in north-central India and a 22-km (14-mile) canal connecting it to the shallow Betwa.

Both rivers flow through vast swathes of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh states, ruled by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the prime minister hopes the Ken-Betwa scheme will set a template for other proposed river interlinking projects, one of the sources said.

“We have got clearances in record time, with the last round of clearances coming in only this year,” Sanjeev Balyan, the junior water resources minister, told Reuters. “The Ken-Betwa interlinking tops the priority list of the government.”

Government officials say diverting water from bounteous rivers such as the Ganges, Godavari and Mahanadi to sparse waterways by building a clutch of dams and a network of canals is the only solution to floods and droughts.

But some experts say India would be better off investing in water conservation and better farm practices. Environmentalists and wildlife enthusiasts have also warned of ecological damage.

BJP states first

The 425-km (265-mile) Ken flows through a tiger reserve nestled in a verdant valley. The government plans to clear out 6.5% of the forest reserve to build the dam, relocating nearly 2,000 families from 10 remote villages.

Around half a dozen clearances, including on environmental and forest protection, have been obtained for the scheme to link the Ken and Betwa, according to two sources and documents seen by Reuters.

Modi’s cabinet is likely to give its final go-ahead for the project within a couple of weeks, sources say, after which he will flag off construction at the site about 805 km (500 miles) from New Delhi, currently marked only by rows of red concrete slabs placed on the ground.

The government is also finishing up paperwork on projects in western India linking the Par-Tapi with the Narmada and the Daman Ganga with the Pinjal. The projects involve Modi’s home state of Gujarat and neighbouring Maharashtra, which includes Mumbai, both also ruled by the BJP.

The river-linking projects was first proposed in 2002 by the last BJP-led government. Work stalled because state governments sparred over water sharing contracts and clearances got stuck in India’s notoriously ponderous bureaucracy.

This time, officials hope starting with projects that are all in BJP-ruled states will smooth negotiations.

Modi’s government is touting the linking of rivers as a panacea to the floods and droughts that plague India every year, killing hundreds of poor people and withering crops.

Large areas of eastern and north-eastern India are reeling under floods in which hundreds have died, while torrential rain also brought the commercial capital Mumbai to a standstill this week. The southern state of Tamil Nadu, in contrast, recently rationed drinking water due to drought.

Not everyone is convinced the projects should be the priority, however.

“Theoretically we can’t find fault with the plan,” said Ashok Gulati, a farm economist who has advised governments. “But spending billions of dollars in a country which wastes more water than it produces, it makes more sense to first focus on water conservation.”

India, which has 18% of the world’s population but only 4% of the usable water resources, perversely gives incentives to produce and export thirsty crops such as rice and sugar cane.

Tigers, vultures and canyons

The proposed 77-metre high (250-ft), 2-km long dam on the Ken River will submerge 9,000 hectares of mostly forest land. A big portion will come from the Panna Tiger Reserve, near the UNESCO world heritage site of Khajuraho Temple in Madhya Pradesh.

The forest reserve, a major tourist attraction, is home to 30-35 tigers and nearly 500 vultures.

“Building a dam in a reserve forest is an invitation to a grave environmental disaster,” said Shyamendra Singh, the scion of the Maharajas who ruled a princely state near Panna during the British colonial era. “It will lead to floods in the forest and drought in the downstream.”

Authorities say they have planned for the safety of tigers and vultures.

People in Daudhan village, not very far from the Gangau dam built by the British in 1915, are ambivalent. With no access to electricity and other basic services, they want more information on what they will get in return for being displaced.

“We never got to see electricity in our village,” said village elder Munna Yadav, gesticulating towards the Ken flowing a few metres from his thatched cottage. “If our children get to move out of this area and if the dam benefits everyone, we’ll not oppose it.” Reuters

First Published: Fri, Sep 01 2017. 08 43 AM IST

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/CXOomlTqJMoDYIXPrLVrNP/Narendra-Modis-87-billion-riverlinking-project-set-to-tak.html?li_source=LI&li_medium=news_rec

NIFTY AUGUST SERIES ACTION

INDIAN STOCK MARKETS = AUGUST MONTH STUDY REPORT

TOADY F&O AUGUST SERIES CLOSING DAY LAST ONE HOUR MADE A BIG DIFFERENCE FOR BULLS TO COVER THE LOST GROUND FROM A LOW 9857 TO 9925, A SERIOUS RISE OF 68 POINTS.

THE SERIES LOST 108 POINTS AND THE BANK NIFTY LOST 625 POINTS. MONTHLY AVERAGE OF NIFTY 9934 AND BANK NIFTY MONTHLY AVERAGE 24508. BANK-NIFTY LOST MORE THAN NIFTY.

THIS MONTH THE RESULTS SEASON INFLUENCED IN STOCK ACTION AND INFY BOARD AND PROMOTORS TUSSLE CAUGHT THE HEADLINES.

PSU BANKS TOOK A SERIOUS BEATING AT LARGE DESPITE OF THEIR OVERALL IMPROVED ASSET QUALITY, DUE TO WHICH PSU BANKS ARE SUFFERING FROM RBI’s LATEST DIRECTIONS ON BAD ASSETS THOSE ARE REFERRED TO NCLT.

JULY CLOSING TO AUGUST CLOSING:

PHARMA SECTOR LOST MORE THAN THE REST- DR REDDY (-22.3%), AJANTHA PHARMA (-15%), GLENMARK (-14.9%), SUN PHARMA (-16.0%), STAR (-16.0%), BIOCON (-15.5%), LUPIN (-11.1%), CADILA (-7.5%), APOLLO HOSPITALS (-16.5%)

PSU BANKS LOST MOST BANK OF BARODA (-15%) BANK OF INDIA (-7.25%) UNION BANK (-12.5%) CANARA (-3.75%), PNB (-6.5%) AND SBI (-7.25%).

THE RISE HAS BEEN VERY DECENT IN GEMS& JEWELLARY, METAL& MINING, OIL AND ENERGY SECTOR ESPECIALLY IN OMCs DEDPITE OF NIFTY FALL.

HIND PETRO (+33.3%), BPCL (+11.3%), IOC (+23.10%),  CHENNAI PETRO (15.5%), MRPL(+14.85%), PC JEWELLARIES (+44.5%), TITAN (+16.3%), CESC(+13.10%), CONCOR (+13.3%), VEDL (+10.3%), TATA STEEL (+10.3%), JSW STEEL (+18.1%),

TATA GLOBAL (+17.5%, RELCAPITAL (+21.75%), UJJIVAN (+10.5%), LT FINANCE (24.0%), GRASIM (+11.5%), PETRONET (+10.50%),

CHINA MARKETS- REVALUED...!!!

China stocks plummet as investors stampede out of the market

CSI300 index falls 7.9%, Shanghai Composite Index loses 7.4%

Reuters  |  Shanghai  

June 26, 2015 Last Updated at 12:59 IST

China stocks on Friday posted some of their worst losses in seven years, as investors stampeded out of a market amid increasing signs the country's eight-month-long bull run is running out of fuel.

The key CSI300 index fell 7.9%, to 4,336.19, while theShanghai Composite Index lost 7.4%, to 4,192.87 points.

For the SSEC, it was the worst one-day loss since Jan 19. For the CSI300, the drop was the biggest since June 2008.

Stocks fell across the board, with nearly 2,000 of the roughly 2,800 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen slumping by their 10% daily limit.

After the CSI300 fell through several technical support levels, then there is "no technical buying support left following a massive rally over the last year or so," investment advisor Rivkin said in a note.

Further falls in China stocks "will send ripples throughout Asian markets," Rivkin said.

A more than doubling of China's stock market over the past year had been underpinned by rapidly-expanding margin financing, monetary easing and hopes of economic restructuring, but analysts said two of the three legs are now shaky.

Regulators have been cracking down on illegal margin financing and urging brokerages to tighten rules. Many investors have also faced increasingly expensive margin calls in the past week as share prices have retreated.

Outstanding margin loans shrank for the third straight day on Wednesday to 2.2 trillion yuan ($354.35 billion), as investors slashed 61.5 billion yuan worth of leverage during the period, the latest data shows.

Jiang Chao, strategist at Haitong Securities, said that further monetary easing - long another pillar of investor optimism - is also in question.

"Recent bond market performance reflects institutional investors' view that the rate cut cycle is coming to an end," he said.

Morgan Stanley sees Shanghai's benchmark index falling between 2 and 30% from current levels over the next 12 months, citing heavy equity issuance, weak corporate earnings, demanding valuations and excessive levels of margin financing. 

http://www.business-standard.com/article/reuters/china-stocks-plummet-as-investors-stampede-out-of-the-market-115062600322_1.html

================

CHINA MARKETS BUTCHERED...???

MY SIMPLE QUESTION IS WHO IGNITED THE FIRE IN THE RALLY TO A STUPENDOUS LEVELS OF 87 P/E RATIOs,...AND WHO RECOGNISED THE VALUATIONS MIS-MATCH & MISTAKES AND OFCOURSE FINALLY WHO LOST?

WINNING TRENDS IN STOCK MARKETS

“PEOPLE ARE NOT DISTURBED BY THINGS RATHER BY THE VIEW OF THINGS” –ALBERT ELLIS, AN AMERICAN PSYCHOLOGIST WHO DEVELOPEDRATIONAL EMOTIVE BEHAVIOUR THERAPY.

THIS PSYCHOLOGICAL APPROACH IS APT TO MANY BUSINESS HOUSE DECISIONS BUT VERY TRUE IN STOCK MARKETS AS VIEWS BECOME PALE & FEARFUL DURING THE TIMES OF DEPRESSIVE NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTS, JUSTLIKE NIGHTMARES IN  THICK FORESTS OF ABUNDANT DESOLATION.

THE STOCK-MARKETS CLEARLY REPRESENT A FRIGHTENING CLUMSY PICTURE AT TIMES WHEN VOLITITIY AT ITS PEAK & FALL CONTINUES!!, NO MATTER HOW SEASONED SOMEBODY BUT TO OVERCOME THE NERVE WRENCHING FEAR AND FORESEE THE FUTURE BECOMES DREADFUL.

TO AVOID UNCERTAINTIES IN STOCK MARKETS ARE NOT AT ANYBODY'S COMMAND OR CAPACITY BUT EVERY PARTICIPANT'S WISH....

TO MITIGATE THE FEAR AND UNDERSTAND THE EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES IN CHAOS, THE FOLLOWING APPROACHES CAN BE ADOPTED FOR BETTER RESULTS AND TO KEEP PACE WITH THE MARKET TRENDS...!!

A) CONVERGENT PROCESS:

THIS APPROACH IS MORE WIDELY ACCEPTED AND FOLLOWED BY THE FIIs, DIIs AND ESPECIALLY FOR THAT MATTER MORE PRECISELY BY HEDGE FUNDS. THESE HIGH RISK SEASONED CUTTING EDGE SMART PEOPLE PLACE HIGH BETS WITH AN ANTICIPATION OF HIGH RETURNS. THE BLOOM AND GLOOM CO-EXIST MANY A TIMES BUT THEIR SPIRITS ARE VERY HIGH.

HERE, STOCK PURCHASE CONCENTRATION IS SO HIGH THAT HUGE MONEY PUMPED AND LARGE CHUNK ACQUIRED AT A REASONABLE PRICE. THE COMPANY FUNDAMENTALS, ECONOMIC &BUSINESS TRENDS AND OTHER IMPORTANT PARAMETERS ARE LITTLE KNOWN TO OTHER RETAIL PARTICIPANTS BUT GET SURPRISED WHY AND HOW THESE COUNTERS ARE HOLDING ON TO THE TOP. 

LAST BUT NOT LEAST, THE VERY IMPORTANT MARKET MANAGEMENT MECHANISMS ARE PUT IN PLACE TO SEE THE PRICES RISE STEADILY AND GRADUALLY TO A LIMIT AND THEN A FINAL SHOOT UP …?. UNFORTUNATELY THE GREEDY POOR TRADERS AND RETAIL INVESTORS GET TRAPPED WHEN PARTICIPATE HEAVILY AND OFCOURSE THE WELL INFORMED SEEK AN EXIT…???

B) DIVERGENT PROCESS:

MAINLY FOLLOWED BY HNIs AND SMALL FUND HOUSES. THE PHILOSOPHY IS TO PROTECT THE CAPITAL AND INCREASE PROFITS IN BABY STEPS. THESE INVESTORS NEVER KEEP ALL EGGS IN ONE BASKET BUT PREFER DIFFERENT SECTORS. THIS DIVERGENT MEANS OF MAKING MONEY CAN OFFER SOLACE THAN ANY OTHER MODEL AS THE MARKET WAGGERIES ARE WELL TAKEN CARE. 

THESE PLAYERS ARE MODERATE IN RISK TAKING APPROACH, HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MARKETS BUT FEARFUL IN APPROACH. THEY ADOPT LONG-TERM PLAY WITH AN EYE ON SHORT-TERM GAINS, PLACE THEM IN GOOD POSITION AS THEY OFTEN TAKE-OUT PROFITS AT HIGHER LEVELS AND RE-ENTER AT LOWER LEVELS. SO, SAFE AND SECURE ALL THE TIME.

C) CHANNELLED PROCESS:

THE LADDER LIKE APPROACH IS ADOPTED BY SMART INDIVIDUALS TO ENSURE SUCCESS AT EVERY MOVE  WITH A LIMITED RESOURCE/MONEY. THEY KEEP MAINTAIN A WINNING STEAK ON BOTH THE DIRECTIONAL MOVES, SAIL ALONG WITH BULLS AND BEARS AS THEIR ADAPTABILITY & LIQUIDITY AT HAND ALLOWS SUCH FACILITY. THEY KEEP INCREASE VERY CALCULATED BETS, ALSO MAKE SUCCESS, A COMMON PHENOMENA LIKE CLIMBING A LADDER.

THESE PLAYERS ARE KNOWLEDGEABLE AND QUITE SMART IN CATCHING TRENDS IN THE MARKETS AND PLACE THEIR BETS SAFELY, ALSO MAKE SOME GOOD MONEY. THE PLAYERS SUCK EACH EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES IN STOCK MOVEMENTS BUT THEIR WELL ESTABLISHED APPROACH IS NOT KNOWN IN THE MARKET CIRCLES BUT MAKE DECENT COOL MONEY.

D) ZIG-ZAG JUMPING PROCESS: 

THIS APPROACH IS MOSTLY ADOPTED BY THE DAY TRADERS AND SWING TRADERS, ENJOY BUYING AND SELLING MANY A TIMES DURING THE DAY.THESE ENTHUSIASTIC TRADING PLAYERS ARE BACK-BONE TO MARKET LIQUIDITY AND FOR STOCK-TIPS ADVISORS. THEY KEEP ENGAGED EVERY TIME AND EACH TIME THEY TAKE A CALL AS THEIR GAME IS HIGHLY VOLATILE AND NO-BODY UNDERSTANDS WHY A BUYING IS MADE AND INSTANTLY A SELLING IS INITIATED. MANY A TIMES THEY BUY AT ONE COUNTER AND ALSO SELL ANOTHER SCRIP. ULTIMATELY, THEY ENJOY PARTICIPATION RATHER THAN MAKING MONEY.

THESE SMALL TIME RATHER INSTANT PLAYERS NEVER MAKE HUGE MONEY STORED IN THE MARKETS BUT LOSE MONEY FOR SURE, BECAUSE OF BUNDLE OF CONFUSIONS!. THE MORE THEY PLAY THE MORE THEY PAY. THEY HARDLY MAINTAIN ANY ORDER/METHOD, FIND NO TIME TO STUDY, PREFER EXTERNAL DEPENDENCY, MAINTAIN ADAMANT BEHAVIOUR TO A LOSING DEALS, RELY ON IRRATIONAL MEDIA COVERAGES & LIVE IN RUMORS AND PLACE HUGE BETS, BELIEVE IN CARRY ALONG WITH THE MOB IN THE MARKETS...ETC. ALL THE MORE, TAKE VERY FRAGILE DECISIONS AND UN-MINDFULLY INVITE HIGH-RISKS, UNFORTUNATELY GO INTO DUST...UN-NOTICED!!!!

US -FED-RATE HIKE !!!

Why US interest rate hikes are a problem for emerging markets

The US Fed on Wednesday said it would watch economic parameters before raising rates, but suggested one could come as early as June

Shishir Asthana  |  Mumbai  

March 19, 2015 Last Updated at 08:36 IST

Markets have been a bit lacklustre and in a state of fear on account of two main reasons. The first is the passage of the Land Acquisition Bill by Indian Parliament and the second is what the Federal Reserve in the USA would do in terms of interest rates. Parliament’s Budget session is still on and chances are that the government will have to call for a joint session of both houses to see the bill through. However, it is the development in the US that will have an immediate impact on the markets.

Much to the relief of markets across the world, the US Fed late on Wednesday night said it would hold on for a little longer before considering raising rates, and would wait for both economic growth and inflation to stabilise. Experts suggest an interest rate might come only in June 2015. 

India is well prepared to deal with any rate hike by the US Federal Reserve IMF chief Christine Lagarde said on Monday. RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan, himself a former chief economist of IMF, had also said earlier that there would be some volatility in emerging markets once the Fed decided to raise interest rates, but India is well prepared deal with the market volatility.

The mere fact that IMF chief and the central bank governor had to mention US interest rates suggests they were trying to pacify the markets from an expected turmoil. So how big is the US interest rate impact that sends global market in a tizzy every time the Fed meets?

We walk you through the impact of a hike in interest rate in USA in the Indian markets.

What does a rising interest rate in USA symbolise?

The end of easy money. Since the start of the financial meltdown crisis triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the US Federal Reserve has resorted to various measures to pump in liquidity in the economy. Three rounds of so-called Quantitative Easing (QE) failed to bring in the required impact on the economy. Though the Fed has withdrawn the QEs, they kept the ‘easy money’ tap open by keeping interest rates near zero. Money was available for free to conduct businesses in the USA. But most of the money was channelized into equity markets and that too in riskier assets like equities. Unlike previous bull runs, the one after 2008 saw money moving into equity markets only. None of the other asset classes like commodities attracted this money. So if interest rates are increased, access to this money will be costly. Chances are that inflow of funds will reverse if interest rates are increased.

Will only equity markets bear the brunt?

Any rise in interest rate has a direct impact on the country‘s currency. Rise of interest rate in the USA will strengthen the dollar. A strong dollar attracts money from other markets causing a ripple effect. While mentioning that India is prepared from an interest rate hike in the USA, Lagarde warned that a strengthening dollar will have a significant impact on Indian financial system.

Which markets are expected to be the worst affected?

Since the time of withdrawal of QEs, to every time Fed sneezes, emerging markets catch a cold. Being at the long end of the investment stick, the first markets from where allocations are withdrawn or reduced are the emerging markets. The recent selloff in emerging markets is on account of withdrawal of money from emerging markets’ equity traded funds (ETF). India however, is one of the strongest markets and most preferred ones in the emerging market basket.

What does history tell us about US interest rate hikes?

There have been 16 cycles since World War II during which the Fed has boosted interest rates. The risks are higher when the Fed first raises rates. During the six months before or after the first rate hike, the S&P 500 experience a decline of 5% or more 13 times. In other words, markets were hit negatively more than 80% of the time. Any hike in interest rate, if it happens will signal the end of the bond bull market that dates all the way back to 1981.

How bad is it for Indian market?

FII investment in Indian equities for the current year stood at over Rs 93,000 crore. In the debt market investment stood at over Rs 150,000 crore. It is the ‘hot money’ or the money that is invested in Indian equity markets for short term purposes that are at the risk of leaving the country. But if dollar strengthens against rupee, chances are money from the debt market will also leave Indian shores. Reserve Bank of India is on the process of reducing interest rates but if USA is increasing rates, the arbitrage opportunity will diminish, that is the biggest exit door that will open up if interest rates rise. RBI will have to use its forex reserve wisely to prevent the volatility in the rupee.

https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=6412567908117008384#editor/target=post;postID=5712009352177399234

Greece-& EURO-PROBLEMS...!!!

5 reasons Greece will be worse than the Lehman Brothers crash

Markets fear that the Greece crisis will be worse than Lehman's collapse, except this time Eurozone nations are holding the toxi debt

Shishir Asthana  |  Mumbai  

January 6, 2015 Last Updated at 17:34 IS

The year 2015 has started on a wrong note for equity markets. Oil prices continue to fall and have breached the $50 barrel mark on oversupply issues and fight for market share by the OPEC countries. But the bigger and immediate worry for markets is the crisis brewing in Greece. The country prepares for elections on January 25th 2015. Fear in the market is that the Greece crisis will be much bigger than the Lehman crisis. Unlike Lehman where bankers were holding toxic debt, this time Eurozone countries are the investors. 

Here are five reasons why Greece can be a bigger threat to the market.

1. Two years after a threat of default by Athens sent global markets world into panic mode, thethreat is once again looming on the horizon. The likely winner of the Greece’s January elections seems to be left-aligned opposition Syriza party led by Alexis Tsipras who wants to renegotiate the terms of a 2012 European bailout that rescued his country from default. The problem is that in the last two years European bankers have sold their Greek debts which have in turn been purchased by European government which now hold 90% of that country’s debt. A default by Greece will hit interest rate of the countries that hold the country’s debts.

2. Tsipras has pledged that if his party wins the election he would ‘tear’ up Greece’s memorandum with the European Union and IMF. He says [ “We will cancel austerity. Under a Syriza government Greece will exit the bailout. This is not negotiable.” He is seeking the same level of debt relief – 50% -- that Germany secured in 1953, which Greece signed up to despite the death of some 300,000 of its citizens under Nazi occupation.

3. Germany and France are opening discussing Greece’s exit from the Euro Union. Sigmar Gabriel, Germany’s economics minister and vice chancellor warned that Berlin wouldn’t be blackmailed into offering concessions on Greece’s debt or the terms of the international plan that rescued the country’s finances. This event comes at a time when Eurozone is in a precarious economic and political state, after years of little or no growth and amid a surge in anti-establishment parties that are challenging governments in many countries.

4. Eurozone is now on a triple dip recession combined with deflation and a Greece exit from the Euro zone will only make matters worse. Greece will have to print its own currency which would be pegged against the Euro. Given the current economic scenario Greece’s currency would immediately fall making its debt repayment and imports even more costly to service. Youth unemployment in Greece has already touched 62 per cent and its debt as a percentage of the GDP is 177. Dirk Schumacher, senior European economist at Goldman Sachs in Frankfurt says “A Greek exit would create a precedent and it’s very hard to say what the impact on financing costs for other peripherals would be.” The countries that are expected to be hit the most are Italy and Spain.

5. The crisis may come to a head in March when Greece is due to run out of cash  The ultimate showdown could come in July and August, when Greece must repay €6.7 billion to the ECB. A report in Bloomberg says that any country exiting the euro would throw the common currency's continued existence into doubt. Greece’s exit would spark similar demand from other smaller countries in the zone. The Bloomberg’s report is titled ‘If Greece goes, so goes the Euro’ which can be a reality.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/five-reasons-why-greece-will-be-worse-than-the-lehman-brothers-crash-115010600605_1.html